Forecasts are initialized on Mondays
and results are published on Thursdays.
12:00 February 5, 2007
Time stamps are in UTC.
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We create forecasts for 21 high top model members (WACCM6, blue) and 21 low top model members (CAM6, red). The transparent shading indicates the ensemble range for each model. The thin lines represent individual members predicting a sudden stratospheric warming, SSW (U<0). The thick blue and red lines represent the ensemble means, and the thick black line represents observations (GEOS FPIT). These forecasts are initialized each Monday, and they are usually published by Wednesday or Thursday. Forecasts are only created from September through March, and the first forecast is on November 8, 2021.
Nick Davis (NCAR/ACOM)
Sasha Glanville (NCAR/CGD)
Yaga Richter (NCAR/CGD)
Carl Drews (NCAR/ACOM)